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A child born on the day of Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s last win would be getting ready to enter preschool this fall. That child would also be turning 3 on Wednesday, so happy birthday, hypothetical youngster, and not-so-happy anniversary, Dale.
Yes, three years ago Wednesday at Michigan International Speedway, Dale Earnhardt Jr. notched his most recent victory. Since then, every Cup driver currently in the top 15 in the standings�not named Earnhardt has won at least one race. (Jimmie Johnson leads the way with�20 wins since Junior's last.) Every week ? every single week! ? eyes once again turn to the 88, and every week, he comes up short, either by inches or by laps.
But right now, at this very moment, he's in as good a position to win as he's been since that day. So good, in fact, that we can actually throw this hypothetical out there:
Could Dale Earnhardt Jr. be a Sprint Cup champion?
Yes, we know you probably spewed coffee all over your monitor at that, and no, we won't reimburse you for your loss. Why? Because by one very reliable metric, Junior is setting up to run the Chase better than anyone in the sport.
Let's step back for a second. The NASCAR schedule includes the 26-race "regular season" and the 10-race Chase. But here's the thing: NASCAR runs on�eight of the 10 Chase tracks during the regular season. (That would be Loudon, Dover, Kansas, Charlotte, Talladega, Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix; only the Chase opener at Chicagoland and the closer at Homestead are one-timers.) We've now run at seven of those eight tracks, with only Loudon still outstanding. And take a look at which driver has run the best at those seven tracks:
That's right: By nearly a full position, Earnhardt has posted the best average�finishes at the tracks where it'll matter the most.
Now, there are several important caveats here. First off, bonus points for regular-season wins, or the lack thereof, would put�Junior at least nine points down from the moment the flag drops at Chicagoland. (Drivers get three bonus points for each race they win during the regular season, giving a leg up to three-time winner Kevin Harvick.) Still, if�Junior runs to his average, he would hypothetically�make up those nine points in just three races against�everyone but Harvick.
Second, while it's mathematically possible that someone could win the Chase without winning a race, it's highly unlikely. Many drivers will find an extra gear once the Chase kicks in, and expecting all of them to have problems while you crawl along slow-and-steady is a foolish hope. At some point, Junior needs to get to the checkers first.
[Related: Is Dale Earnhardt Jr. a future Hall of Famer?]
Is it likely he'll win? Nope. Carl Edwards, Harvick, Johnson and Kyle Busch are all better bets, and Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth have been there before. Still, turning on the jets when the Chase hits is exactly how Johnson has won several of his Cups, so it's not completely out of the question.
Junior has said in the past that he doesn't want to make the Chase if he can't have a reasonable expectation of winning it all. If he does make it this year, and all indications are that he's on that path, he's giving himself a fighting chance.
(Thanks to reader Todd Anderson for the stats compilation.)
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